September 23 #Bitcoin / #ETH Market: Continuous fluctuations, prices are testing support again in the short term, with weak rebounds! Macro Main Line: The sectors are separated, and the macro main line looks at the previous text. Currently, the sentiment in the risk market reveals concerns amidst optimism. On one hand, there is worry about the continuous high-level rise of the U.S. stock market, fearing bubble risks, which has led to a potential hedging demand in the market, guiding gold to rise continuously. Then there are concerns about economic uncertainties, as well as the potential risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. approaching September 30. Yesterday, the support for the U.S. stock market came from the narrative of artificial intelligence, particularly in tech stocks. But how long can this narrative and tech stocks continue to drive the market? Can they support the high-level bubble? BTC Market: 1. The price is at the upper range of the hourly level, with a rebound during the day, reversing the short-term downward trend, and no divergence observed. 2. The price is still at the lower range of the four-hour level, below MA120 and MA200. The attempt to rebound to MA200 during the day did not achieve an effective breakthrough and stabilize, with the range moving down, and the divergence has been corrected. 3. The price is temporarily at the lower range of the daily level, overall weak, with the price testing support near 111,300 again during the day. 4. After the new low yesterday, a rebound occurred at the hourly level, but this morning, the price tested support again, creating a new low in the short term. This trend is not considered an effective stop in both the four-hour and daily levels. 5. The short-term stop signal is a long bottom wick, followed by the second and third candlesticks not breaking the previous low, looking for a short-term rebound, and then observing the resistance breakthrough situation. A successful breakthrough will accelerate the rebound; if it fails, it will continue to be seen as a fluctuating downward trend. Currently, the trend aligns with the latter. 6. At this time, the stop signals in the four-hour and daily levels are not obvious, so we need to refer to the support situation at 111,300. Once this support is broken, it will basically confirm a continuation of the third wave of the corrective pullback. Currently, 111,300 is the "neckline"; breaking it will further confirm the pullback trend. 7. Many people are talking about a bear market, but I personally do not believe so. I reiterate that the current pullback is an optimistic trend. If the price can stabilize at 105,000, then a new upward wave will bring new highs. Of course, if it breaks down, technically a short bear may appear, but I am not pessimistic; the macro environment is still temporarily optimistic. Support and Resistance: Short-term support is still around 113,000. If it breaks down, it will be difficult to find effective support in the short term, continuing to look for a fluctuating downward trend. The expected position for this daily pullback is around 105,000. Resistance: Short-term resistance is in the range of 113,000 to 114,000, with the four-hour MA200 and MA120. If the price can rebound and stabilize above the resistance range, it is expected to reverse the downward trend; otherwise, continue to look for a pullback. The key watershed position is still around 114,300. Other Indices: RSI: 50 at the hourly level, around 38 at the four-hour level, both belong to a weak bullish range, and the daily index is around 46, in a weak bullish state. CME: The BTC futures index maintains parity with the spot market. Compared to yesterday's negative premium, the bullish demand in the futures market has slightly increased, but it is still below the usual performance, indicating weak bullishness. Daily Thoughts: Continuing yesterday's thoughts, looking for a rebound after a short-term sharp drop. If this week's rebound cannot bring an effective breakthrough to reverse the four-hour downward trend, we will continue to look for a fluctuating downward daily pullback, with the thought being a continuation of the third wave of the pullback. The key watershed for the rebound is around 114,300, with the expected pullback at around 105,000. Be patient and wait; I personally do not short, looking at the big trend as bullish, waiting for the right position to go long. I am not pessimistic about the daily pullback, and I do not believe the bear market has arrived. The macro environment is good, and while a short bear may appear technically, I do not think a real bear market will emerge at this time. ETH Market: The rebound of ETH is weaker compared to BTC. In the short term, we look at whether it can break and stabilize around 4360; this is a watershed for bullish and bearish reversal. The effective support below remains at the 4000 integer level and the key Fibonacci support around 3880.