Previously, we discussed that the price difference between $ZRO and $STG is essentially a measure of the market's confidence in whether LayerZero can successfully acquire Stargate. However, the plot has thickened in the past couple of days, as Wormhole has jumped in, turning this from a mere acquisition into a full-blown bidding war. So let's continue with our previous line of thought and pull out the timeline to review how the market has been pricing this step by step. ➤ Phase One: LayerZero's Offer LayerZero's terms are 1 $STG = 0.08634 $ZRO. At that time, $ZRO was around $2.44, which implies an intrinsic price for $STG of $0.21. In the actual market, $STG was around $0.19, indicating an 8.5% discount. 👉 The signal is clear: everyone thinks the deal is likely to go through, but there's still some risk buffer. ➤ Phase Two: Convergence of Price Difference Later, $ZRO dropped to $2.25, which changed the implied price of $STG to $0.194, while $STG itself also fell to $0.18, narrowing the gap to 7.4%. 👉 This step is quite intuitive: the smaller the price difference, the more the market believes this can be resolved. ➤ Phase Three: Wormhole Suddenly Enters the Scene Just as the market was beginning to accept LayerZero's logic, Wormhole suddenly announced: ① They believe LayerZero's offer undervalues Stargate; ② They provided data support—$4 billion in bridging volume in July, a tenfold year-on-year increase, with a $TVL of $345 million, and an expected annual revenue of $2 million; ③ They also demanded a pause in voting to submit a higher bid themselves. 👉 At this point, the anchor set by LayerZero was directly broken, and the market began to calculate another equation: is there a possibility of even higher bids? ➤ The pattern is quite clear: 1) Initially, the price difference serves as a barometer; 2) However, once bidding begins, the price difference becomes irrelevant, and the core question shifts to who is willing to offer a higher price. In other words, this is no longer a simple arbitrage game, but a standard merger auction logic. 🔹 My own perspective: 1) In the short term, the volatility range of $STG will be much larger than before, with the focus of arbitrage shifting from monitoring price differences to monitoring premiums. Early movers may directly push up the price. 2) In the medium to long term, Stargate itself is cross-chain infrastructure with solid data growth, so buyers will not be lacking. Even if LayerZero fails to acquire, Wormhole's involvement effectively provides a floor for token holders. So now, the play with $STG has changed: 👉 Either bet on short-term premiums, 👉 Or wait for the merger to finalize and see how long-term value is reassessed.